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Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the potential of military engagement involving East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a intense war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

Eritrean authorities alerted on recently that moves to validate "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a move that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have since broken down anew.