Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.